These new forecasts are a collaborative effort of MAPC, the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute (UMDI), and MassDOT. UMDI prepared population and job projections for the entire region using the latest information about birth and death rates, in- and out-migration, and national population and business sector forecasts. 

Based on these products, MAPC prepared detailed regional household projections with detail on households by age, number of children, workers, and income. Once these regional “control totals” were prepared, MAPC allocated household and job growth to individual census blocks. These localized projections were developed using UrbanSim, a modeling framework that has been adopted by dozens of other regions across the country and which was customized for the Greater Boston region. UrbanSim accounts for the varied preferences of different types of households and businesses, and it incorporates information about housing and land costs, development activity, zoning restrictions, environmental constraints, amenities, existing industries, and other factors. Full documentation of the UrbanSim model is forthcoming and will be posted here soon.   

Any effort to project the future requires assumptions about many different factors, ranging from local land use regulations to federal immigration policy. These draft forecasts are intended to represent a “business as usual” future that assumes recent demographic, economic, and development activity continues on a similar track over the next few decades. For example, UMDI has assumed that birth, death, and migration rates remain about where they were in 2015; meanwhile these draft forecasts assume that household formation rates remain steady, current zoning restrictions remain in place, and location preferences don’t change significantly (among other factors.)  

Of course, the future won’t be exactly like today. So in addition to forecasting “business as usual” it will also be useful to develop scenarios that incorporate different assumptions about major demographic or economic shifts, headship rates, rezoning, or changes in location preferences. Such scenarios can illustrate the range of possible futures that may come to pass; and how cities and towns in the region can take action to create a more equitable and sustainable future in the context of significant uncertainty. In the coming months, MAPC will be creating such alternative scenarios, starting with assumptions about the different ways that municipalities could implement the new MBTA Communities regulations.  

Following a period of robust growth from 2010 to 2020 (almost 9%), the MAPC region is facing considerable uncertainty when it comes to overall population change. The last ten years have seen an overall declining in international migration and increasing numbers of people moving to other states. If these patterns persist, growth rates are likely to slow considerably. These draft projections anticipate growth of just 3.8% over the next ten years, and 2.5% per decade after that. In total, the region is projected to grow by about 315,000 people from 2020 to 2050, a 9.2% increase over three decades. Even as the population grows slowly, it will be shifting: the over-65 population is projected to grow by 36%, whereas the population between 20 and 40 is projected to decline by about 1%. The population of school-age children is also likely to grow slowly, increasing by just 6.7% over the 30-year period. 

Slow population growth doesn’t necessarily mean low growth in housing demand, however. Older residents will continue to need homes as they age, while young adults will still be forming many new households. Between 2020 and 2030, MAPC estimates that people born in 1985 or afterwards will seek to form 247,000 new households. Older adults who move out of the region or who pass away are likely to free up only about 170,000 units. As a result, the total number of households may increase by about 77,000 or 5.7%—much faster than population over that same period. Household formation is likely to outpace population growth over the entire forecast period, growing by over 13% from 2020 to 2050.   

With regard to employment, the region has largely recovered its pandemic job losses and is expected to continue adding employment out to the year 2030. After that, the working age population is projected to stagnate, leading to relatively slow growth from 2030 to 2050. As with population, slow growth masks big changes within overall employment. The Education and Health Services, Professional and Business Services, and Information sectors are all expected to grow by 19% or more relative to 2020; whereas Manufacturing and Leisure and Hospitality are projected to decline by 17% or more. These shifts in the nature of employment have a big impact on local employment projections. Municipalities with a large share of jobs in declining sectors are generally projected to see an overall loss in employment over the coming decades. It should also be noted that the new commercial square footage already documented in Massbuilds exceeds the total amount needed to support net job gains over the next decade. Our model assumes that these new developments will be drawing existing jobs from other parts of the region, another reason why some municipalities are projected to experience job losses. 

Municipal forecasts of population, households, and employment by sector out to the year 2050, in tabular format, are available here: Draft Projections – Municipal Summaries. The excel spreadsheet includes tabs for total population, population by age, households (by age of householder and type of household), and employment by sector. Three different types of households are summarized: households with a child age 18 or under; households of two or more adults with no child present; and households of a person living alone. Please note: the population in these tables only includes population in households. Population in Group Quarters (dorms, nursing homes, correctional facilities, etc) will be allocated through a separate process. Employment is tabulated in ten “supersectors” which are aggregations of NAICS industry codes.   

Reviewers will notice that the 2020 household counts do not exactly match household counts from 2020 Census data. Since complete 2020 Census data is still not available, the “base year” of the model is 2010, and we forecast out to 2020 and beyond. The vast majority of municipalities are within 3% of their 2020 household counts, but there are some with a larger variance. Over the coming weeks, MAPC will be making adjustments to bring those outliers closer to the 2020 counts. MAPC encourages reviewers to focus on the projected change between 2020 and future forecast years rather than looking at the absolute numbers. As additional detail from the 2020 Census is released (age, household type) MAPC will work to improve the calibration of the model to match those counts.  

Also note that the projected household growth is not equivalent to housing unit demand. The region and its municipalities are already experiencing a housing shortage which is manifest in historically low vacancy rates. As a result, households looking to move are competing for a relatively small number of available units. To ease this crunch and achieve a healthy vacancy rate, housing production will need to exceed household formation. So housing unit production targets are likely to be higher than household growth in most municipalities. MAPC is still developing its targets for total housing production based on household growth, and these will be released once the household projections are finalized.   

Neighborhood-level (Census block group) projections of household and employment change from 2020 – 2030, along with contextual information, can be viewed as an interactive web map here: Draft Projections Web Map. This map contains multiple layers that can be turned on and off using the “Layers” button on the left side of the window (just below the plus sign). Only one block group layer is visible at a time, and they are displayed in the order shown on the layer list. In order to see those further down in the list, you will need to turn off they layers above it by clicking on the eye symbol in the layer box. You can view the legend for the visible layers by clicking on the Legend button on the left side of the window (6th from top) You can get info about each feature by clicking on it. If there are multiple layers turned on, use the arrows in the pop-up window to navigate to the other features present where you clicked.  

The following layers are included in the map (in the following order):  

• MassBuilds projects 2020 – 2030: This is a point layer showing the location of each development project in MassBuilds with a completion date from 2020 – 2029. The detail about each feature includes the name, estimated completion date, number of residential units, and commercial square footage. If this data needs to be updated, or if there are projects missing, you can provide that information via Massbuilds.   
• Household Change 2020 – 2030. This is the projected increase in the number of households living or seeking to live in the block group between 2020 and 2030. The block group values sum to the municipal totals in the tables referenced above. The purpose of this map is to show where in your community additional housing demand is anticipated over the next decade.  
• Employment change 2020 – 2030. This is projected change in the total employment in the block group over the decade. It may incorporate increases in some sectors and decreases in others. Employment declines are more likely in block groups with a high share of declining sectors (manufacturing, leisure and hospitality); employment growth is heavily influenced by new development projects with a nonresidential component.   
• MassBuilds Housing Units Anticipated 2020 – 2030. This is a sum of the housing unit count from all Massbuilds projects in the block group with a completion date of 2020 – 2029. If this data needs to be updated, or if there are projects missing, you can provide that information via Massbuilds.   
• MassBuilds Commercial Square Feet Anticipated 2020 – 2030. This is a sum of the nonresidential square footage from all Massbuilds projects in the block group with a completion date of 2020 – 2029. If this data needs to be updated, or if there are projects missing, you can provide that information via Massbuilds.   
• Estimated net housing unit capacity. This is MAPC’s estimate of additional housing units that could be built under current zoning. It is based off the allowable density (DUpAc) values in the Zoning Atlas, discounted for undevelopable land, undersized parcels, and other factors. If you think this value is too high or too low, please provide updated density assumptions via the zoning atlas or send new zoning data to [email protected].   

MassBuilds is MAPC’s collective online development inventory. It’s easy to create an account, search for existing projects, edit outdated information, and add developments that aren’t already included. Once you’re on the site, click the icon at the top right to log in, reset your password if you’ve forgotten it, or create a new account if you don’t have one. If you are municipal employee or official setting up a new account, be sure to request “municipal” status. This means that your edits and additions will be published immediately rather than being sent for moderation. If you need guidance creating an account, please view this Massbuilds: Signup Tutorial video.   

Once you are logged in, you can search for a development or filter developments using the tools in the top left of the window. You can filter to your own city or town and then narrow down to particular development characteristics. You can get details about a particular project by clicking on the dot. If you need to update the information, click Edit in the project details window. To create a new project, click the icon in the top left corner of your screen and select “New Development. If you need guidance on creating a new development, please view this MassBuilds: Submitting New Development video.  When adding or editing or a project, please note that some fields are required (shaded in yellow)—be sure to fill those in or you can’t save the project. Also be sure to locate your project in the right place by moving the map around so that the dot is right over the subject parcel.   

Additional information and tips are available by clicking on the About button. If you need more help or if you have a spreadsheet of projects you’d like to upload, please contact [email protected]. 

The MAPC Zoning Atlas is MAPC’s compilation of available zoning district boundaries from our region’s communities and our best estimate of allowable densities and uses. Click on any district to see key attributes, or download the data to get the full detail. To learn more about the technical methods and field definitions, visit the About page. That page also has a Feedback section where you can learn more about how to provide feedback through the web form or submit additional districts for inclusion. If you need assistance with the zoning atlas, please email [email protected].