April 23, 2025 - BOSTON - New collaborative research from Housing Navigator Massachusetts, Inc. and the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) measured and explored the gap between the supply of income-restricted, affordable rental housing in the Commonwealth and the number of households in need of that housing. The research found a gap of 441,000 low-income households from Cape Cod to the Berkshires without access to an affordable rental home, showing that the current supply of affordable rentals serves just 32% of low-income households.

Housing Navigator MA's novel dataset of income-restricted housing in Massachusetts allows research to explore this gap in detail for the first time. The research focused on what the state needs in the context of what currently exists, deploying new research methods on a uniquely detailed affordable housing inventory. Household projections produced by MAPC show how the need for affordable housing will increase over the next 20 years as more households in the Commonwealth shift into older age and if income inequality is not addressed. In addition to identifying the sizeable gap of 441,000 low-income households without access to an affordable unit, other key findings include:

• Households making 30% of area median income or less, known as Extremely Low-Income (ELI) households, have the largest gap, with 194,000 households lacking access to an income-restricted unit, or 61% of all ELI households.
• Eighty-one percent of households making between 30% and 50% of area median income, or Very Low-Income households (VLI), lack access to an income-restricted unit, representing 134,000 VLI households. This represents the largest rate of housing instability for any income group.
• Low-income renter households of every size and age struggle to access income-restricted housing. There are two households with children for every appropriately sized unit, three older-adult households for every age-restricted unit, and six one-person or two-person couple households for every one-bedroom, studio, or single-room occupancy unit.

"At Housing Navigator MA, we proudly serve over 38,000 unique users monthly on our search tool, empowering renters with the key information they need to make informed choices about where they want to live,” said Housing Navigator MA Executive Director Jerome DuVal.

“We understand that not every place fits the specific needs or desires of every household. That’s why our robust dataset offers a deeper, more nuanced understanding of the affordable housing landscape—providing groundbreaking insights toward matching the needs and ensuring every renter can find a place to call home. We are committed to making our research a vital resource for policymakers, funders, developers, and advocates across the Commonwealth, working together to solve the housing crisis."

In every region across the Commonwealth, defined by the state’s regional planning agency boundaries, at least two-thirds of low-income households lack access to an income-restricted unit and rely on the market for housing. The report describes these households as “unstably housed,” because their reliance on market rate housing (including naturally occurring affordable housing) leaves them at risk of eviction, cost-burden, over-crowding, and other unsafe housing conditions. This visualization shows each region’s utilization of affordable housing supply and remaining demand.

“Having the data means we finally understand the scale of the problem,” said MAPC Executive Director Marc Draisen. “Building more market rate units is key, but if market rate is all we build, we will never serve the people who need housing the most.  That’s why expanding the supply of truly affordable housing is critical.”

The undersupply of affordable rental housing in Massachusetts has several real-world consequences. Families stay in housing that is too crowded for their needs, share housing with other families, and make difficult sacrifices to pay the rent, while many still face cost-burden and homelessness. Older adults struggle with downsizing or aging in place in housing that does not accommodate their physical needs. Workers take on longer and longer commutes, spending precious resources on transportation costs. People of all ages and incomes leave the Commonwealth for places they can afford to live.

Using Housing Navigator’s detailed data on the income-restricted affordable housing supply in Massachusetts and microdata on household characteristics from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the research team was able to calculate how the existing affordable housing supply meets the needs of low-income households by income and household composition. This research is focused on the supply of income-restricted housing units in Massachusetts. Mobile vouchers are another way that low-income households attain affordable housing; we estimate that there are approximately 66,000 mobile vouchers used by Massachusetts households in market rate housing. However, due to data limitations, mobile vouchers are not accounted for in the calculations of the affordable housing gap in this study.

This analysis allows researchers, planners, developers, and all members of the housing community to understand the need for deeper affordability and unit mixes in new developments. Housing Navigator MA and MAPC hope the research provides actionable insight for those working to meet the needs of Massachusetts’ low-income residents. The research informs where stakeholders can focus their limited affordable housing resources and how to refine state and local affordable housing preservation and production policies to more directly address the needs and circumstances of the households they are intended to serve.